By-elections to nine Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, initially scheduled for November 13 but postponed to November 20, are drawing increased attention due to their political significance. The constituencies span Eastern, Western, Central, and Braj regions, with diverse demographics, including a Scheduled Caste-reserved seat and constituencies where the Muslim vote is crucial. These by-elections, while not high-profile, are seen as a critical test for both the ruling BJP and the opposition, especially in the wake of the surprising results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP saw a dramatic decline, with its seats falling from 62 to just 33, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) made significant gains, winning 37 of the 80 seats. The BJP is under pressure to recover lost ground in Uttar Pradesh, which is vital for the party’s political fortunes in the 2027 Assembly elections. The party’s defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, along with setbacks in Haryana and Rajasthan, has led to internal unrest, especially within the UP BJP. The outcome of these by-elections could intensify factionalism within the party, particularly if the results favor the opposition.
The SP, meanwhile, seeks to prove that its strong performance in the Lok Sabha elections was not a fluke. It is contesting all nine seats alone, sidelining its ally, the Congress. The party has stuck to its strategy of appealing to backward classes, Dalits, and minorities, fielding four Muslim candidates, three from backward communities, and two Dalits.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, aiming to unify the Hindu vote, has adopted the controversial “batenge toh katenge” slogan, which has received backing from the RSS and Prime Minister Modi. This is seen as a strategic attempt to solidify the BJP’s Hindu vote base amid growing pressure for a caste census.
